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Weapon chances by Weapon Type

Swords:
Knights (40%)
Squire (33%)
Geomancer (25%)
Thief (25%)
Chemist* (~1%)

Knives:
Thief (50%)
Wizard (33%)
Chemist (25%)
Ninja (25%)
Squire (17%)
Dancer* (~2%)

Axes:
Geomancer (50%)
Knight (20%)
Squire (17%)

Flails:
Priest (33%)
Ninja (25%)
Squire (17%)

Spears:
Lancer (75%)
Samurai (25%)

Knight Swords:
Knight (40%)

Katanas:
Samurai (75%)
Geomancer (25%)

Ninja Blades:
Ninja (50%)
Thief (25%)

Bows:
Archer (40%)
Bard (25%)

Crossbows:
Archer (40%)
Squire (17%)

Staves:
Priest (67%)
Time Mage (60%)
Summoner (20%)

Rods:
Wizards (67%)
Summoner (60%)
Calculator (20%)

Books:
Calculator (60%)
Mediator (40%)
Oracle (25%)
Summoner (20%)

Poles:
Oracle (75%)
Time Mage (40%)
Lancer (25%)
Calculator (20%)

Guns:
Mediator (60%)
Chemist (25%)
Archer (20%)

Harps:
Bard (75%)

Fabric:
Dancer (75%)

Bags:
Chemist (50%)
Dancer (25%)
All Classes* (~1%)

Unarmed:
Mimes (100%)
Monks* (98%)

Weapon chances by Class

(The Bag chance* is emitted from this list)

Squire:
Swords (33%)
Knives (17%)
Axes (17%)
Flails (17%)
Crossbows (17%)

Chemist:
Bags (50%)
Guns (25%)
Knives (25%)
Swords* (~1%)

Knight:
Knight Swords (40%)
Swords (40%)
Axes (20%)

Archer:
Bows (40%)
Crossbows (40%)
Guns (20%)

Monk:
Unarmed (98%)

Priest:
Staves (67%)
Flails (33%)

Wizard:
Rods (67%)
Knives (33%)

Time Mage:
Staves (60%)
Poles (40%)

Summoner:
Rods (60%)
Books (20%)
Staves (20%)

Thief:
Knives (50%)
Ninja Blade (25%)
Swords (25%)

Mediator:
Guns (60%)
Books (40%)

Oracle:
Poles (75%)
Books (25%)

Geomancer:
Axes (50%)
Swords (25%)
Katanas (25%)

Lancer:
Spears (75%)
Poles (25%)

Samurai:
Katanas (75%)
Spears (25%)

Ninjas:
Ninja Blades (50%)
Flails (25%)
Knives (25%)

Calculator:
Books (60%)
Rods (20%)
Poles (20%)

Bard:
Harps (75%)
Bows (25%)

Dancer:
Fabric (75%)
Bags (25%)
Daggers* (~2%)

Mime:
Unarmed (100%)

Weapon chances by Support ability

Certain classes have preferences in the Equip Item abilities. I’ll list the ‘default’ list, then the preference lists, including the classes under this designation. If the class doesn’t appear under the preference designation, it uses the normal list.

Equip Knife (normal):
Ninja Swords (36%)
Daggers (36%)
Rods (29%)

Equip Knife (Priest, Time Mage, Oracle, Monk):
Rods (43%)
Ninja Swords (29%)
Knives (29%)

Equip Knife (Mediator):
Knives (43%)
Ninja Swords (29%)
Rods (29%)

Equip Knife (Calculator, Samurai):
Ninja Swords (43%)
Rods (29%)
Knives (29%)

Equip Sword (normal):
Swords (36%)
Katanas (34%)
Knight Swords (30%)

Equip Sword (Knight):
Katanas (43%)
Swords (29%)
Knight Swords (29%)

Equip Sword (Samurai):
Knight Swords (43%)
Swords (29%)
Knight Swords (29%)

Equip Sword (Geomancer):
Knight Swords (36%)
Swords (36%)
Katanas (29%)

Equip Sword (Ninja):
Katanas (36%)
Swords (36%)
Knight Swords (29%)

Equip Axe (normal):
Axes (36%)
Flails (36%)
Staves (29%)

Equip Axe (Wizard, Bard, Oracle, Monk, Calculator):
Staves (43%)
Axes (29%)
Flails (29%)

Equip Axe (Knight, Geomancer):
Flails (43%)
Axes (29%)
Staves (29%)

Equip Axe (Priest):
Axes (43%)
Flails (29%)
Staves (29%)

Equip Axe (Ninja):
Axes (36%)
Staves (36%)
Flails (29%)

Equip Gun (normal):
Guns (43%)
Books (43%)
Harps (14%)

Equip Gun (Thief non-forced):
Guns (57%)
Books (29%)
Harps (14%)

Equip Gun (Thief forced):
Guns (63%)
Books (25%)
Harps (13%)

Equip Gun (Monk, Time Mage, Wizard, Priest, Ninja non-forced):
Books (57%)
Guns (29%)
Harps (14%)

Equip Gun (Ninjas forced):
Books (61%)
Guns (25%)
Harps (14%)

Equip Gun (Calculator):
Guns (43%)
Books (29%)
Harps (29%)

Equip Gun (Mediator):
Harps (43%)
Books (29%)
Guns (29%)

Equip Bow (normal):
Bows (50%)
Crossbows (50%)
Bags (1%)

Equip Bow (Samurai):
Bows (64%)
Crossbows (38%)
Bags (1%)

Equip Bow (Mediator):
Crossbows (64%)
Bows (38%)
Bags (1%)

Equip Bow (Archer):
Bows (43%)
Crossbows (43%)
Bags (14%)

Equip Spear (normal):
Spears (43%)
Poles (43%)
Fabrics (14%)

Equip Spear (Knight, Archer, Thief):
Spears (57%)
Poles (29%)
Fabrics (14%)

Equip Spear (Wizard, Summoner, Mediator, Monk, Dancer):
Poles (57%)
Spears (29%)
Fabrics (14%)

Equip Spear (Calculator):
Fabrics (43%)
Poles (29%)
Spears (29%)

Equip Gun (Lancer):
Fabrics (43%)
Poles (29%)
Spears (29%)

Martial Arts (not selected due to having a Punch Art secondary**):
This is a bit complicated, but will add roughly a 50% chance for a unit to be unarmed. This chance increases to around 60% if Martial Arts was forced.

*Note: there’s also a universal bag chance for every class. This chance is slightly higher for female units. This chance varies from class to class, but in general this chance is around 1% (Monks have the highest chance at this, at 2.5%). This chance still exists for Chemists and Dancers, who get Bags innately, but this chance instead gives Swords (Chemist) and Daggers (Dancer). Mimes are the only class that cannot equip Bags. Instead their ‘Bag Chance’ gives them access to another upgraded Armor type.
**Martial Arts has a very small chance to be forced on a character with Punch Art as a secondary. This is simlar to Monster Skill and Throw Item appearing on units with Talk Skill and Item. When this occurs, the unit is never unarmed. (Although this doesn’t guarentee that all units with both Punch Art and Martial Arts is unarmed… Martial Arts could’ve rolled as a support by coincidence.)